See also the main article on Delaware, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.
Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.
| Trump votes | Biden votes | Other votes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Officially reported results | 200603 (39.8%) | 296268 (58.7%) | 7571 (1.5%) |
| Estimate of potential fraud | 27000 (5.4%) | ||
| Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed) |
200603 (42.0%) | 269268 (56.4%) | 7571 (1.6%) |
Estimating 27k excess votes on a lenient evaluation. We will have a house effect for Biden of at least a few points in his home state.
Party registrations moved slightly Democrat in Kent, which Trump flipped in 2016. That is tagged yellow (5k excess) – acknowledging slight Democrat gain – flagging for strong Trump growth and massive Biden gain.
New Castle is the main driver for Democrat power in Delaware; has declined in raw Democrat votes since Obama’s first run; Biden up 16k over Obama ’08, 32k over Clinton. Flagged yellow for 10k excess.
Sussex is 2.7% more GOP than it was in 2016 registration, when Trump blew it out. This is a MAGA county. Trump gained another 9k, only this time instead of Democrat column staying the same, Biden gained 17k, well against reg trends and above any reasonable expectation for home state advantage. Flagged red, 12k excess.
Trump’s margin of loss would have been 14.3%, or 56.4% to 42.1%, a margin of 69k votes.
Source: https://t.me/CaptainKMapsandStats/64
Detailed Analysis
If anyone has a PDF of the above report, please let us know in the comments.
Initial Canvass Results
Releasing some preliminary results on canvassing in Delaware, from Patriots for Delaware.
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The state’s “final voted” file is 20k higher than state elections office final total. Oops.
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See photos above, with:
- 25% adjudication rate for mail votes
- More votes from nursing homes than beds to vote from.
- Flagrant violations of the law pertaining to overseas/military ballots coming straight out of government addresses.
And this… in Biden’s home state.
Source: Telegram post, Sep 29, 2021
Methodology
Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.
This video from Telegram also explains some of Seth’s approach to analyzing precincts.
Raw Data
We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Delaware so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.
Election Audit Groups on Telegram
Further updates from Seth Keshel can be found on his Telegram Channel @ElectionHQ2024.
To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in Delaware, you can join the following groups on Telegram:
For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels.
ElectionFraud20.org and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.