See also the main article on Idaho, for documented election integrity issues and further reports.
Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes. The following report indicates which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences. Each county is flagged as red, yellow, or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the expected trends (as past decades demonstrate they typically do), or if they diverged in statistically unlikely ways.
| Trump votes | Biden votes | Other votes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Officially reported results | 554119 (63.9%) | 287021 (33.1%) | 26014 (3.0%) |
| Estimate of potential fraud | 15000 (1.7%) | ||
| Estimate of actual result
(with fraud removed) |
554119 (65.0%) | 272021 (31.9%) | 26014 (3.1%) |
Idaho taught me a lot. As I’ve said, it is almost clean as a whistle. More on that shortly.
Idaho trended exactly as the registration by party data said it would, and this taught me a lot about Utah, Arizona, and Montana. More later.
Ada County, we have a record high Biden vote gain of 45k, when the previous record was 24k for Obama 08. If we assume a fair 2016 amount for Democrats in Ada would be about 90k, then this is less ominous. Trump got most 2016 sit-outs back; Republicans outregistered Democrats in Ada 37k-26k (1.6 to 1 ratio) in last four year… but the % trended slightly Democrat (1.6%).
Bottom Line: I feel Biden is about 15-20k heavy in Ada County.
| Yellow | Suspect/Likely Fraud | (1 county) |
| Green | Clean | (43 counties) |
This, so far, is my best example of PROPER TRENDING in the 2020 election. Recommend audit for Ada County. If Biden is 15k heavy, margin would be 64.9-31.9% (33.0%).
Source: https://t.me/CaptainKMapsandStats/29
Top 100 Worst Counties
Seth has listed Idaho’s Ada County as being among the Nation’s Top 100 Worst Counties in terms of abnormal trends during the 2020 election.
Stats By County
Source: https://t.me/CaptainKMapsandStats/29
Ada County
Seth’s post below links to a detailed heat map of the county and lists the top-10 worst precincts:
Events & Presentations
| Date | Presenter | Location | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 9, 2021 | Seth Keshel, David Clements, and Dr. Douglas Frank |
Post Falls, Idaho | More info |
Methodology
Seth Keshel’s estimates are based on the percentage of voters who are registered to each party (where it’s possible to obtain this information) compared to the actual votes for each party. He examined these party trends over the last two decades, as well as population growth, which brought to light the strange and statistically unlikely outliers and anomalies that occurred in 2020. We explain this process, step by step, with visual examples, in our guide How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, so that you can investigate the numbers for yourself.
This video from Telegram also explains some of Seth’s approach to analyzing precincts.
Raw Data
We aim to publish links to both the raw election data and voter registration data for Idaho so that citizens and researchers can analyze this information for themselves.
Election Audit Groups on Telegram
Further updates from Seth Keshel can be found on his Telegram Channel @ElectionHQ2024.
To join the grassroots efforts in pursuing election integrity and audits of the 2020 election in Idaho, you can join the following groups on Telegram:
For other states, see our Full List of Telegram Channels.
ElectionFraud20.org and Seth Keshel have no affiliation with nor any responsibility for these channels. Discern carefully, as some users and even admins of channels have shown obstruction to transparent audits of our elections.