Election Analysis by Seth Keshel

Former US military intelligence officer and statistical analyst Seth Keshel reportedly predicted the 2016 election outcome accurately in all fifty states.

Following the November 2020 Presidential Election he analyzed the trends of voter registrations versus actual votes and discovered alarming anomalies in a number of counties, ones that defy typical historical trends. He has published reports by county and by state that indicate which counties’ vote counts align with the trend in voter registrations and which have small or large divergences.

Seth has been an advisor to Former Lt. General Michael Flynn and Federal Lawyer Sidney Powell.

In the following pages you will find maps and charts that flag each county as red, yellow or green, based on whether the 2020 vote totals aligned with the trends, or diverged in statistically unlikely ways:

Seth has also posted a revised map, see this Telegram post.

Where a large divergence is detected (red), this does not in itself prove fraud, but is a clear flag that the numbers should be investigated further.

Likewise, just because something is green doesn’t mean there are no issues with the county. The analysis considers trends, and Seth considers it “bulletproof” when he has access to party registration numbers. If a county follows the same trends as the past years and current numbers suggest, it goes as green. Audits of green counties might be considered lower priority.

Reports by State

Click a column heading to sort by that column.

The table above shows the official vote counts, plus the estimated number of excess Biden votes — this is the number of votes that are oddly above what the trends would suggest. These are based on trend analysis in the modern political era, considering population growth/decline, recent voter history, and registration information, including registration by party.

Seth explains that his estimates are always lenient, and do not account for cyber-attacks that flip votes more subtly in ways that avoid statistical detection.

Flipped States	Based on this data, if fraudulent votes are removed, Trump would have actually won these states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Minnesota, and thus retained the Presidency.
Potentially-Flipped States	It’s also possible that Trump may have won additional close-call states if there was additional fraud such as cyber-attacks occurring: New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, New Jersey, New Hampshire.
Close Calls	These states would still have likely been won by Biden, but may have been closer than what was reported: Washington, Oregon, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Hawaii.
Cleanest State	Iowa
Mostly-Clean States	Idaho, Wyoming, Arkansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, Mississippi
Worst States	California, New York, New Jersey, Arizona, Washington, Oregon, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Minnesota

Top 100 Worst Counties

Here is Seth’s graphic showing, in his opinion, the Top 100 counties we must secure Full Forensic Audits in in order to trust or restore the integrity of our election system:

This was tough to narrow down from 132, so a few had to be kicked out.

Purple	the swing states in the electoral college: AZ, GA, MI, MN, NV, PA, WI
Red	Key audit targets in states won by Trump
Blue	Key audit targets in states won or “won” by Biden

In Red and Blue categories, he did not choose unrealistic targets (like Cook or Los Angeles Counties, which would be very difficult to audit).

Source: Telegram Post, Aug 28, 2021

What Makes This Work Accurate?

The polls are not accurate. Anybody that understands anything about analytics realizes that polls suffer from something called “social desirability bias”, where people don’t answer truthfully about which candidate they support or which party they support, which is how you end up with these 43-39 polls with 18 percent undecided. It doesn’t tell you anything. And they’re also made in some ways to suppress turnout, usually of conservatives.

“Polling is generally not an accurate thing it’s been that way for quite some time, but trend analysis is something that goes back decades as far back as these records are available, we’re talking about party registration data. It’s very telling in places like Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. That’s the most accurate predictor there is. And I was able to use data like that, including understanding dynamic shifts and trends to predict the 2016 election perfectly including, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And the data line over the same exact fashion this year was huge Republican expansion and gains in places like Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. So all the data suggests that these same states [were] turning more Republican. In Georgia, of course, we had a lot of issues on election day. But trend analysis is accurate, it’s plugged into real time, and it identifies behavior, registration data and population.”

— From interview with Seth Keshel, on the Gateway Pundit, Aug 5, 2021

The Ten Points To True Election Integrity

Here is Seth’s 10-point strategy to create clean elections in the future:

1. All voter rolls dumped and all legitimate voters re-registered with appropriate means of confirmation to eliminate illegal or double registering of voters.

2. Ban on all electronic elections equipment: poll books, voting machines, tabulators.

3. Paper and pen/pencil balloting, granted only with valid ID.

4. Mail balloting illegal with exception of overseas military, legitimately disabled with appropriate approval and supervision, or professionals unable to vote on Election Day (doctors, pilots, etc).

5. No early voting. Counter with more and smaller precincts.

6. Precincts under 1,000 voters.

7. Ballot harvesting illegal and punishable by a decade in prison.

8. Election Day as a state or national holiday. A populist compromise that will eliminate fraud through the means of having weeks or over a month to execute.

9. Winners announced by midnight. Somehow FL and TX can tally 10mm+ votes 90 minutes after polls close but PA needs 4 days and CA 4 weeks.

10. Ten-year prison terms for anyone caught restricting access for members of any party to observe election procedure (e.g. TCF Center, etc.), ballot harvesting, repeat scanning ballots, or any other means of distorting an election.

Source: Telegram Post, Jan 10, 2022

Other Reports

General Flynn and Seth Keshel collaborated on an article in The Western Journal:

10 Indisputable Facts on the 2020 Election That Argue for Audits

He calls it “a no nonsense, cold, hard look at facts, trends, and indicators going as far back as 1892”.

Video Presentations

It’s not that we’re trying to scream a certain outcome right now, it’s that we’re wondering “Why is there no investigation into this? Why is nobody asking these questions?”

– Seth Keshel, in Doug Wade Interviews Seth Keshel, Jan 2, 2021

In addition to the state-specific videos shown in the list above, these other videos refer to the US election in general:

• Doug Wade Interviews Seth Keshel, Jan 2, 2021. This provides a good overview of Seth’s methodology, using Florida and Pennsylvania as examples. It also covers the anomalies in “bellwether” counties and states (e.g. Ohio, Iowa, Florida and North Carolina) that traditionally predicted who would win the Presidency with 92-100% accuracy, but despite them predicting a Trump win, the end result went to Biden.

• Captain Seth Keshel: The Numbers Don’t Lie - interview on The Professor’s Record with David K. Clements, July 9, 2021, containing more background on Seth Keshel and his work with Lt. General Michael Flynn, Sidney Powell and Lin Wood. They then discuss the trends and results in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida.

• Seth explains the 6 different types of counties and their voting behavior, Telegram, July 26, 2021

• Seth’s Presentation to Tarrant County, Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas, July 29, 2021

• The Capt. Seth Keshel Interview Part 1: Who Is Captain K?, J Slay USA, Aug 10, 2021. See also Part 2 and Part 3.

• Seth Keshel’s Presentation at Cyber Symposium: “Behind The Election Corruption Curtain”, Aug 11, 2021. Powerpoint slides can be downloaded from this Telegram link.

• Voter Trends Expose Signs Of Tampering In The Recent US Election: Alan Keyes with Seth Keshel, Aug 12, 2021.

• The Daily 302 Show 2A with Guest Captain Seth Keshel, Aug 29, 2021. They discuss the article with General Flynn, Kansas, Alaska, New Mexico, and other general issues.

• Fake President: Keshel Reveals Indisputable Election Fraud Evidence, Oct 27, 2021. The Stew Peters Show.

• Seth Keshel Describes the Six Major County Types, Nov 26, 2021

• Stew Peters Show: We The People Have ALL The Power, TODAY We Change The Game, Dec 16, 2021. Seth is interviewed from the 24min mark.

• Why The Keshel Rating System is Paramount To Exposing Election Fraud!, Jan 18, 2022. Interview with Jovan Pulitzer.

• Cross Talk: America First Patriot Seth Keshel Shares Cure to 2020 Election Corruption, Jan 25, 2022.

• The Fight Continues - Zak Paine Interviews Seth Keshel, Feb 7, 2022.

• Seth’s website also displays some of his recent appearances and interviews

• Many more videos are available on Rumble.com

Upcoming Events & Presentations

Seth lists upcoming events and appearances on his website, here.

Identify Electoral Fraud Yourself Using Trend Analysis

Following Seth’s trend analysis work, our independent team has dived further into the data and surfaced numerous irregularities. If you’re interested in learning more about Seth’s process and what else we’ve uncovered, see the following series of articles:

Overview	Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis Diving deeper into the unusual trends and statistics discovered in the 2020 election.
Part 1	The Fall of the Bellwether Counties A look at the surprising failure of the bellwether counties in 2020, and what that tells us about the Presidential election outcome.
Part 2	The Battle for the Largest Counties The data shows the Democrats are winning less and less counties at each election, but are winning more and more of the largest counties. How is this possible?
Part 3	The Curious Case of the 2020 “Voting Rate” Blowouts Voter turnout rates shot up dramatically in many states in 2020. We look at the voting rates since 2000 to find out which states set a new record.
Part 4	When Winning Margins Go “Off the Charts” Learn how to "normalize" a county's winning margin to identify abnormalities. What does this reveal about the 2020 election?
Part 5	How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data Learn how to use the party registration numbers for each county to predict the election results for a state and assess the likely validity of the results. This is a guide on the method Seth Keshel uses for his predictions and county heat maps, allowing you to dig into the trends of your own county and uncover anomalies.
Part 6	The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align We build on some of the previous techniques to scan 3,111 American counties, identifying those whose shift in vote totals moves unexpectedly against the shift in party registrations.
Part 7	Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases We compare the Democrat vote totals with previous elections which reveal some very large increases in unlikely places.
Part 8	Unlikely Z-Score Values We compare key parameters in the 2020 results against the previous five elections using the z-score, and find hundreds of counties breaking statistical norms.
Part 9	Down Ballot Election Analysis Interesting statistical findings on how the Presidential race results compared to the other races in the same election.
Part 10	Voter Roll Analysis Coming soon.
Part 11	The Art of the Steal Coming soon.

  Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles.

Raw Data

In most states, the certified election results and voter registration statistics are available from the Secretary of State or State Board of Elections. Check their website for details.

The detailed historical spreadsheets that Seth sometimes uses appear to be the ones from USElectionAtlas.org, although we have not officially confirmed this. On that website, the detailed data in CSV format is purchasable for a fee, while some aspects are browsable on the website.

Statement by Donald J. Trump

Highly respected Army intelligence captain, Seth Keshel, has just released his Report on National Fraud Numbers with respect to the 2020 Presidential Election. I don’t personally know Captain Keshel, but these numbers are overwhelming, election-changing, and according to Keshel, could be even bigger in that they do not account for cyber-flipping of votes. They show I won the election—by A LOT! Now watch the Democrats coalesce, defame, threaten, investigate, jail people, and do whatever they have to do to keep the truth from surfacing, and let the Biden Administration continue to get away with destroying our Country. The irregularities and outright fraud of this election are an open wound to the United States of America. Something must be done—immediately!”

August 4, 2021, via Telegram and Gab

Follow Seth’s Updates

ElectionFraud20.org is not directly affiliated with Seth Keshel. We found his reports insightful, and have republished them online to make them accessible to a wider audience.

For the latest reports and updates from Seth, find him at:

• @ElectionHQ2024 on Telegram, where he provides general updates about the election and subsequent audits. His early maps, stats and graphics were also posted under Captain K’s Maps and Stats.

• CaptK.com – personal website with calendar and booking information

• Substack: Captain K’s Corner – articles and deeper analysis

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